Friday, February 3, 2012

Super Bowl Prediction

Everyone who is anyone knows this weekend is the biggest sports weekend of the year, that's right it is Super Bowl weekend and it features a rematch between the New England Patriots (13-3) and the New York Giants (9-7).
With the Super Bowl being played in Indianapolis on Sunday it is time to breakdown both of these teams and predict who will win the game.  First off let's review the history between these two teams.  The last time they faced off in the Super Bowl, was four years ago and it was a completely different story.  The Patriots were on the cusp of completing an undefeated, 19-0 season, about to go into the history books as one of, if not the greatest football team of all time.  The Giants foiled that plan by beating the Patriots with an incredible pass rush and a clutch performance from Eli Manning.
Offense
New England's offense had another stellar season, averaging 428 yards a game of total offense, 317.8 of it coming through the air and 110.3 on the ground.  The key to the Patriots offense in this game is being able to protect Tom Brady.  In 2008 the Giants were able to get pressure on Brady by only rushing four defenders, allowing the rest of the team to drop into coverage and disrupt the passing lanes.  If the offensive line can not stop the pass rush of the Giants, nothing the offense does will be very successful.  Another key cog in the offense is Rob Gronkowski, who lead the Patriots with 17 receiving touchdowns. Gronkowski was injured in the win against the Ravens last week and it remains to be seen how effective he will be in the big game.  Brady needs to have a bounce back game after throwing two interceptions against the Ravens in the AFC title game.  He finished the regular season with 39 touchdown passes and will need some more of that magic to win this game.
New York's offense had a decent year as well, especially with the breakout performance of wide receiver Victor Cruz, who burst onto the scene with 82 receptions for 1536 yards and nine touchdowns.  Cruz has been the perfect complement to fellow receivers, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham.  The one question that needs to be answered for the Giants is which Eli Manning shows up.  Will it be the one who has in one game thrown four interceptions, or will it be the one who has lead clutch fourth quarter comebacks?  The problem with Manning is every once in awhile he has an awful game, no matter what defense they are playing.  The offense averaged 385 yards of offense a game, 295.9 passing and 89.2 rushing the ball.  As long as the offense does have a let down performance, the Giants should be in this one until the end.
Defense
As good as the Patriots offense has been all season, that is how woeful the defense has been.  They are giving up 411.1 yards of offense a game, 293.9 of it through the air, and 117.1 on the ground.  The entire secondary has been decimated by injuries and the pass rush has been at times non-existant.  While they have only been giving up 325 yards a game in the playoffs, it is a disturbing trend having the league's worst defense heading into the biggest game of the year.  To be effective at all, the Patriots will have to get pressure on Manning and do it fast before his dynamic receivers can get open.  Granted this is the first time the Patriots have had any type of consistency on the defense side of the ball, but they will have their hands full.
The story of New York has been it's defense and the ability of the defensive line to get pressure without any additional help from the linebackers or the secondary.  The Giants gave up 376.4 yards a game, 255.1 through the air, and 121.3 on the ground.  The Giants will have their hands full with the offense of the Patriots, but come in confident, having stopped the Patriots the last two times they played against each other.  Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyora, and Justin Tuck anchor the defensive line and it will be a treat watching them rush after Tom Brady.  As long as the defense doesn't have a letdown, they will be in the game.
Prediction
I have a hard time believing that Eli Manning can have another stellar game without making a mistake.  They can't overlook the Patriots defense otherwise there will be a huge letdown offensively.  As long as the Patriots can keep Tom Brady relatively clean, with minimal sacks, the Patriots will be able to pick apart the rest of the Giants defense. If Gronkowski can at least draw a double team, it should leave things open for the rest of the very capable New England offense.  My prediction is Brady gets revenge against the Giants and wins his fourth Super Bowl to put his name into consideration for the greatest QB of all time.  The game will be a fairly high scoring ordeal, but I see it being 32-28 Patriots.

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